Liquor 1-2 revenue growth picked up the industry weak recovery
The food and beverage industry: 1-2 month liquor revenue or income, the decline in profit growth of dairy products.
Liquor: 1-2 month revenue growth picked up, industry weak recovery. Liquor 1-2 monthly income and profit growth has picked up, the reason may be 14 years ahead of the Spring Festival from a low base, the spring festival needs 15 years more in 1Q15, but also reflects the needs of the industry has stabilized the weak recovery. The prospect of 15 years Maotai volume control prices 2H15 price may be higher, Wuliangye to strengthen market management, channel from systolic entered a period of expansion; non first tier liquor differentiation may continue to increase.
Wine: 1-2 month revenue growth at a high level, the impact of imported wine will continue. 1-2 industry revenue or profit growth, possibly because of the Spring Festival of factors led to the 1Q14 of a low base, at the same time, channel adjustment and product structure quickly end of the downgrade. To 15 years to see the impact of imported wine continued efforts but the effect gradually weakened, the domestic wine opportunity remains to be seen.
Rice wine: 1-2 month profit growth significantly improved profitability is still difficult to improve the high-end wine. Cardinal causes of wine profit growth to expand to 35%, gross margin decline indicates that the industry is still the downgrade process. In 15 years of high-end wine to weak demand, the listing Corporation performance is still difficult to turn for the better.
Beer: 1-2 month decline in profit growth, 15 years sales pressure is still large. 1-2 beer profit growth rate dropped to 0.2%, mainly due to gross margin fell. In 15 the annual per capita consumption of close to the ceiling, the beer industry is still facing selling pressure, performance is difficult to significantly improve.
Social consumption: 1-2 month total consumer society, the growth rate down. 1-2 months total consumer society, an increase of 10.7%, the growth rate down. Total consumer society, urbanization growth rate dropped to 10.6%, the growth rate down to 11.6% of total consumer society. Food and beverage industry total consumer society, 1-2 month growth rate rose to 11.2%, the growth rate reached 13 year highs.
Industry view: demand is weak, the lock industry absolute leader. Along with the economic growth level and CPI growth rate down, the nominal growth rate of total consumer society 15 years 1-2 months fell slightly to 10.7%. Observation of the food and beverage sub industry growth, but also a lot of the overall weak spot. As a condiment industry revenue growth rate is still high, liquor, wine growth at the bottom of the rise of dairy products, although revenue growth slow but the profit is still on the rise.
The current context, we recommend concerned about the sub industry absolute leader, especially those of the obvious advantages of leading management system. When the industry downward oscillation, the leader is not only easier to seize more market share, earnings stability and expansion of industry capacity will be more powerful. Such as spices in the Haitian flavor industry, dairy Yili Corporation, the wine Zhangyu, liquor Maotai and the Yanghe River Guizhou Corporation, meat Shuanghui development.
Key recommendation of the company: Erie, DaBeiNong Corporation, An Qi, Guizhou, Wuliangye yeast Maotai risk warning: Public Governance and strict time and intensity than expected risk of food safety incidents.
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